#polymarket

The public sees the spark: a PR head declaring that US states have no...

In the quiet of a Thursday morning, as the crypto market licked its wounds fr...

0.1%. That is the market's verdict on the probability of a US-Iran meeting...

The FBI didn’t knock. They had the data first. Polymarket, the leading...

I saw a number on Polymarket today: 0.4%. That's the market's implied...

Tracing the liquidity trails in the esports prediction market, I noticed...

Silence in the code speaks louder than the hype. On a Tuesday that felt like...

Silence is also data. The market is screaming a contradictory signal, and mos...

Hook A headline hits the wire: Qatar condemns Iranian missile and drone attac...

Over the past seven days, a binary event on Polymarket has seen its probabili...

A single percentage point flickered across my screen this morning: 11.5%. Tha...

The chart is a lie. The 0.4% probability pinned on Alibaba’s AI model...

Hook The data shows a 10.5% probability on a prediction market that the Irani...

A single unverified Telegram post. A minor shift in on-chain odds. No...

The data is clean. Two numbers: 38.5% and 53.5%. Both represent the probabili...

The data suggests a 15% probability that Houthi forces will launch military...

When Cristiano Ronaldo casually predicted that Spain would defeat Argentina b...

Beneath the headlines of the latest missile strike on Sloviansk, a different...

Hook A single number is eating my brain: 1.7%. Harry Styles has a 1.7%...

A 60.5% probability on Polymarket. That’s the number pricing a direct Iranian...

Hook A single number is floating through the crypto echo chamber: 26%. That’s...

500 billion dollars. That’s the number splashed across every headline:...

The market screams certainty. An 86.5% probability on Polymarket that Shohei...

It started with a single line buried in a Crypto Briefing quick hit: 'US...

What if the most accurate gauge of geopolitical risk isn’t a classified...

Hook The final whistle of the 2026 World Cup had barely faded when the crypto...

The flaw in Iran's state TV announcement about striking US military facilitie...

Hook Trump dropped it at 9:42 AM EST on Truth Social: “The United States shou...

Over the past 72 hours, a missile strike reshapes the battlefield near...

Breaking: On-chain prediction markets are pricing Shohei Ohtani’s injury at...

Mike Maignan conceded six goals in a World Cup qualifier playoff. The market,...

What if the most dangerous attack in the Middle East this week wasn’t a...

The French gambling regulator ANJ ordered the country’s internet service...

Last Thursday, as Israeli tanks rolled deeper into Gaza City's outskirts—a...

On December 1st, the French National Gambling Authority (ANJ) ordered interne...

The number landed on my screen at 3:17 AM Barcelona time: 25.5%. Not a crypto...

Over the past 48 hours, Polymarket’s ‘Iran to close airspace by Aug 31’...

On a quiet Tuesday afternoon, the French National Gambling Authority (ANJ)...

The 27.5% Signal: Deconstructing Prediction Markets as Geopolitical Oracles...

The charts whisper a quiet certainty. On-chain prediction markets, those...

The line on Polymarket reads 89.5%. Not a forecast, not a poll. It is a price...

Polymarket odds for Mitch McConnell resigning before 2025 just spiked 15% in ...

Last Sunday evening, I was sitting in my apartment in Amsterdam, watching the...

The code does not lie; it only waits to be read. At 20:34 UTC on the evening ...

Markets lie, but liquidity tells the truth. Over the past 72 hours,...

The scoreline reads 2-1. England barely scraped past Norway in a World Cup...

The announcement landed like a dull thud. Polymarket, the prediction market...

Tracing the static in the protocol’s genesis block, I often find the most...

Hook A single sentence from an unnamed staffer last week triggered a flurry o...

Polymarket shows a 52% probability for CLARITY Act passage. Up from 44% last...